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[1]陈锦萍,陈庞何,赖金霞.基于血清SERCA2a水平构建慢性心力衰竭患者短期不良终点事件预测模型[J].医学研究与战创伤救治(原医学研究生学报),2025,38(01):44-49.[doi:10.16571/j.cnki.2097-2768.2025.01.007]
　CHEN Jinping,CHEN Panghe,LAI Jinxia.Construction of short-term adverse end-point event prediction model for patients with chronic heart failurebased on serum SERCA2a level[J].JOURNAL OF MEDICALRESEARCH —COMBAT TRAUMA CARE,2025,38(01):44-49.[doi:10.16571/j.cnki.2097-2768.2025.01.007]
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基于血清SERCA2a水平构建慢性心力衰竭患者短期不良终点事件预测模型()
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《医学研究与战创伤救治》（原医学研究生学报）[ISSN:1672-271X/CN:32-1713/R]

卷:
38卷
期数:
2025年01期
页码:
44-49
栏目:
论著·临床研究
出版日期:
2025-01-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Construction of short-term adverse end-point event prediction model for patients with chronic heart failurebased on serum SERCA2a level
文章编号:
2097-2768（2025）01-0044-06
作者:
陈锦萍; 陈庞何; 赖金霞
作者单位：524000 湛江，广东医科大学附属第二医院公共卫生科（陈锦萍、赖金霞），心血管内科（陈庞何）
Author(s):
CHEN Jinping; CHEN Panghe; LAI Jinxia
（1.Department of Public Health，2.Department of Cardiovascular Medicine，the Second Affiliated Hospital of Guang?dong Medical University，Zhanjiang 524000，Guangdong，China）
关键词:
慢性心力衰竭; 肌浆网钙离子ATP酶2a; 列线图; 短期不良终点事件
Keywords:
chronic heart failure; sarco reticulum Ca2+-ATPase type 2a; columnar graph; short-term adverse endpoint events
分类号:
R541.6
DOI:
10.16571/j.cnki.2097-2768.2025.01.007
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
目的 构建基于血清肌浆网钙离子ATP酶2a（SERCA2a）水平的慢性心力衰竭（CHF）患者短期不良终点事件预测模型。方法选择2020年1月至2023年1月广东医科大学附属第二医院收治的230例CHF患者为研究对象，其中建模组145例，验证组85例。出院后随访3个月，根据是否发生短期不良终点事件分为事件组、无事件组。收集患者基础资料、实验室指标及检测血清SERCA2a水平，通过多因素Logistic回归分析筛选建模组CHF患者短期不良终点事件的独立预测因子，建立列线图模型并进行评估。结果230例CHF患者中，有78例患者发生短期不良终点事件（33.91%），其中建模组50例，验证组28例。事件组与无事件组在年龄、BMI、合并高血压、LVEF、NT-proBNP、CRP、SERCA2a方面差异具有统计学意义（P<0.05）。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示，年龄、合并高血压、NT-proBNP、CRP、SERCA2a均是CHF患者短期不良终点事件发生的影响因素（P<0.05）。建立的预测模型拟合度较好（χ2=7.652，P=0.213）。ROC曲线显示，AUC分别为0.901、0.897；决策曲线显示，当预测风险阈值>0.01时，模型有良好的临床净收益。结论基于血清SERCA2a、年龄、合并高血压、NT-proBNP、CRP建立的CHF患者短期不良终点事件列线图预测模型具有良好的准确度、区分度，临床应用价值较高。
Abstract:
Objective To establish a short-term adverse end-point event prediction model for patients with chronic heart fail?ure（CHF）based on serum sarco reticulum Ca2+-ATPase type 2a（SERCA2a）level. Methods A total of 230 CHF patients admit?ted to the Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University from January 2020 to January 2023 were selected for the study，including 145 in the modeling group and 85 in the validation group. They were followed up for 3 months after discharge from the hospi?tal and were categorized into event group and no event group according to whether short-term adverse endpoint events occurred. Labo?ratory indicators of patients? basic data and serum SERCA2a levels were collected. Independent predictors of short-term adverse end?point events in CHF patients in the modeling group were screened by multivariate Logistic regression analysis，and a nomogram modelwas established and evaluated. Results Short-term adverse endpoint events occurred in 78 of 230 CHF patients（33.91%），with 50in the modeling group and 28 in the validation group. There were significant differences in age，body mass index，combined hyperten?sion，LVEF，NT-proBNP，CRP and SERCA2a between the event group and the non-event group（P<0.05）. Multivariate Logistic regres?sion analysis showed that age，combined hypertension，NT-proBNP，CRP and SERCA2a were all factors affecting the occurrence of shorttermadverse endpoint events in CHF patients（P<0.05）. The estab?lished prediction model had a good fit（χ2=7.652，P=0.213）. ROCcurve showed that AUC was 0.901 and 0.897 respectively; The deci?sion curve showed that when the predicted risk threshold is >0.01，themodel has a good clinical net benefit. Conclusion Based on SER?CA2a，age，hypertension，NT-proBNP and CRP，the short-term adverse endpoint event prediction model of CHF patients has good accu?racy and differentiation，and has high clinical application value.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
基金项目：湛江市科技发展专项资金竞争性分配项目（2022A01132）
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-01-20